← Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1183
Q3 1364
1423
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
